Arizona's Invisible Water Emergency and Page's Role in the Solution

Arizona's Invisible Water Emergency and Page's Role in the Solution

By Bob Hembree

High above Arizona, NASA satellites detect something invisible to the human eye: the equivalent of more than two Lake Meads vanishing underground. While residents across the state go about their daily lives, the Colorado River Basin has lost approximately 34 cubic kilometers—equivalent to 28 million acre-feet—of groundwater from 2003 to 2025, representing more than twice the combined depletion of Lake Mead and Lake Powell.

This staggering loss represents one of the most dramatic water crises in American history, yet it remains largely invisible to the communities it threatens. The alfalfa fields of southern Arizona seem worlds away from Page's red rock landscape and Lake Powell shoreline, but their drying wells could soon reshape this northern Arizona community in ways residents never anticipated.

The Hidden Crisis Revealed by Science

NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-up mission GRACE-FO have revolutionized our understanding of water storage by measuring minute changes in Earth's gravitational field caused by shifts in water mass. The satellite data reveals that:

• Groundwater depletion accounts for 65-71% of the basin's total water storage loss, surpassing surface water loss as the primary driver
• The rate of groundwater loss has doubled in recent years in some Arizona regions, particularly in western and southeastern counties
• Ancient groundwater sources provide 41% of Arizona's water—resources that aren't replenished at meaningful rates

What's Driving the Crisis

The accelerating groundwater loss stems from multiple converging factors:

• Agricultural demands: Irrigation for water-heavy crops like alfalfa accounts for about 75% of groundwater pumping in unregulated rural areas
• Climate change: Rising temperatures and a 20% decline in Colorado River flows this century
• Regulatory gaps: 82% of Arizona has no groundwater pumping restrictions
• Weather patterns: The transition from El Niño to La Niña has shifted winter precipitation patterns

Arizona's Groundbreaking Response

Despite the alarming scale of depletion, Arizona has demonstrated remarkable innovation in water management. The state's comprehensive approach shows how policy solutions can operate at the scale of the crisis itself.

Historic Conservation Achievements

The Ag-to-Urban Program: On June 30, 2025, Governor Katie Hobbs signed Senate Bill 1611, creating Arizona's "Ag-to-Urban" Groundwater Conservation Program. The Arizona Department of Water Resources estimates this voluntary program could save nearly 10 million acre-feet of water over its lifetime—more than one-third of the groundwater already lost from the Colorado River Basin.

"The Ag-to-Urban water conservation legislation shows what we can achieve when state policymakers come together to focus on solving the problems that Arizonans care about most," said Governor Katie Hobbs. "I have fought day in and day out to protect Arizona's water while growing our economy, and I am proud to have brokered a bipartisan, historic water deal that will save millions of acre-feet of water, help lower the cost of housing, and create jobs."

The legislation passed with bipartisan supermajority support in the Senate and a bipartisan majority in the House. State Senator T.J. Shope called it "the most consequential piece of groundwater conservation legislation since the 1980 Groundwater Management Act," adding: "Hard-working Arizonans will be able to pursue their American dream of homeownership as home supply increases in Maricopa and Pinal Counties and prices naturally ease. Our farmers, who are ready to retire, can reap the benefits of their land while also allowing the state to save water."

Managed Aquifer Recharge Success: From 1989 to 2019, strategic water management added approximately 25 cubic kilometers to Phoenix, Tucson, and Pinal County aquifers through:

• 10.5 cubic kilometers through intentional banking policies
• 14.2 cubic kilometers from incidental irrigation seepage

New Water Sources: Arizona approved the first-ever groundwater transportation order from the Harquahala Basin on July 18, 2025, authorizing the City of Buckeye and Town of Queen Creek to withdraw up to 10,926 acre-feet annually (5,926 and 5,000 respectively) from a supply exceeding 8 million acre-feet.

"This approval from the Arizona Department of Water Resources unlocks another water supply that Arizona can use to support our communities, economy, and way of life," said Governor Katie Hobbs. "We will continue to develop creative solutions and new water supplies as we fight to protect our Colorado River water and the aquifers that Arizonans rely on."

Federal Coordination Efforts

The Department of the Interior secured 18 conservation agreements with water users in Arizona and California that will conserve approximately 321,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Mead—equivalent to adding about five feet to the reservoir's elevation.

Page's Unique Position and Evolving Role

While much of Arizona faces this underground water emergency, Page operates under different circumstances that position it uniquely within the broader crisis.

Current Water Security

Current Water Profile

Coconino County's water supply breakdown shows the regional context:

• Surface water: 50% of total supply
• Groundwater: 44% of total supply
• Reclaimed water: 6% of total supply

In 2015, groundwater accounted for 18.52 million gallons per day in Coconino County, with usage patterns showing:

• Domestic use: 60.7% of groundwater consumption
• Agricultural use: 25% of groundwater consumption
• Commercial use: 14.2% of groundwater consumption

Page relies primarily on surface water piped from Lake Powell via Glen Canyon Dam, rather than local groundwater wells. This provides relative water security compared to groundwater-dependent communities, though recent historic low levels have required infrastructure adaptations to maintain access.

Changing Regional Relationships

The Navajo Nation's $43 million LeChee Water Improvements Project, signed in May 2025, exemplifies evolving regional dynamics. The comprehensive project includes:

• A membrane water treatment plant producing one million gallons daily
• 31,000 feet of 12-inch pipeline with renovated Lake Powell intake systems
• Ten times more water capacity for LeChee, reducing dependence on Page's infrastructure

"This was never just about water," said Delegate Helena Nez Begay. "It was about building a future where our children do not have to haul water just to cook or bathe."

Navajo Department of Water Resources Director Jason John emphasized the economic transformation: "The Navajo Nation owns this intake. With this water project, LeChee will have ten times more water available for economic development."

Page's Blueprint for Regional Leadership

While communities across Arizona grapple with disappearing groundwater, Page stands at a crossroads. The city can either remain a passive observer of the state's water crisis or transform itself into a model of water resilience and regional leadership.

Leveraging Technology and Data

NASA's GRACE satellites provide unprecedented insight into water storage changes throughout Arizona and the Colorado River Basin. Page could pioneer the integration of this technology with local water management systems to:

• Monitor regional water conditions in real-time
• Make informed decisions about infrastructure investments
• Support both current water security and long-term planning

NASA's Applied Sciences Water Resources Program offers decision-support tools for sustainable management and collaborates with agencies to strengthen water resource resilience.

Building on Proven Success

Arizona's documented successes provide concrete models for regional leadership:

• 25 cubic kilometers of managed aquifer recharge from 1989 to 2019
• 10 million acre-feet projected savings through the Ag-to-Urban program
• 321,000 acre-feet conserved through federal agreements

Page's experience with surface water management, combined with these proven policy frameworks, positions the city to lead regional water innovation rather than simply adapt to changing circumstances.

Federal Coordination Opportunities

Arizona's strategic positioning in federal water negotiations provides Page with opportunities to contribute to solutions that strengthen the entire Colorado River system. The success of conservation agreements demonstrates how local innovation connects to federal coordination.

Bureau of Reclamation Acting Commissioner David Palumbo emphasized: "These agreements represent the continued collaboration within the Colorado River Basin as we all look to secure the needed near-term water supplies."

Conservation and Efficiency Strategies

Current water usage patterns in Coconino County provide opportunities for regional impact. With some areas like Flagstaff depending on groundwater for 50-90% of their municipal water supply, conservation efforts could significantly reduce pressure on regional water supplies.

Page's experience managing water for seasonal population fluctuations associated with tourism provides insights that could benefit other communities facing variable demand. Agricultural water use accounts for 25% of groundwater consumption in Coconino County, suggesting collaboration between urban and rural areas could support more efficient practices while maintaining agricultural viability.

Regional Partnership Models

The transformation from traditional supplier-dependent relationships to collaborative partnerships strengthens entire regions. Page's role can evolve from managing water dependency to facilitating regional water coordination.

Regulatory Context: Unlike some Arizona regions, Coconino County falls outside Active Management Areas where groundwater pumping faces stricter regulation. This means private well pumping remains largely unregulated across much of the county, creating potential for overuse and aquifer depletion even in areas that haven't yet experienced severe water stress.

The success of managed aquifer recharge programs elsewhere in Arizona—adding 25 cubic kilometers to Phoenix, Tucson, and Pinal County aquifers—provides models for how northern Arizona communities could work together on strategic water planning that benefits all participants.

Long-term Planning and Resilience

The accelerating rate of groundwater loss throughout Arizona creates urgency around long-term water planning. Page's current water security provides time and resources for proactive planning that could benefit both the city and surrounding communities.

Key Challenges to Address

• Climate change affects both surface water sources like Lake Powell and groundwater recharge
• Wildfire risks and urbanization threaten water quality and recharge processes
• Emergency preparedness for water system disruptions requires regional coordination

Opportunities for Innovation

Page could become a model for regional water innovation by:

• Integrating advanced monitoring technology with proven conservation approaches
• Contributing to federal water negotiations based on surface water management expertise
• Pioneering regional partnership models that benefit all basin communities

A Model for the Future

Arizona's groundwater challenges, combined with unprecedented conservation achievements and evolving regional partnerships, present Page with concrete opportunities to lead water innovation rather than simply respond to changing conditions.

The state's demonstration of comprehensive water management—from 25 cubic kilometers of managed aquifer recharge to 10 million acre-feet of projected Ag-to-Urban savings—provides proven models that Page can adapt and advance.

Former Governor Bruce Babbitt's praise for current leadership demonstrates the continuity of Arizona water innovation: "The passage of Senate Bill 1611 is an outstanding accomplishment, and testament to Governor Hobbs' leadership in delivering solutions on water policy. This legislation is good for our aquifers, good for our residents, and good for our farmers. It proves once again that Arizonans, by working together, can assure our water future."

What’s Next?

The choices Page makes about engaging with proven state policy frameworks, contributing to federal water negotiations, and pioneering regional partnership models will determine whether the city becomes part of Arizona's continued water leadership or simply another community that missed opportunities to help shape solutions at the scale of current challenges.

Page has the opportunity to contribute to Arizona's proven track record of water innovation rather than passively benefit from water security. The combination of successful conservation programs, evolving tribal partnerships, federal coordination agreements, and demonstrated aquifer recharge success provides multiple pathways for regional leadership that build on documented successes rather than theoretical possibilities.

As the satellite technology that revealed the Colorado River Basin's 34 cubic kilometers of groundwater loss also enables precise monitoring of conservation successes, Page could pioneer approaches that create templates for other Colorado River communities facing similar challenges.

The transformation of regional water relationships, exemplified by projects like LeChee's achievement of water independence, demonstrates how traditional relationships can evolve into collaborative partnerships that strengthen entire regions—building a future where communities work together to ensure water security for generations to come.

Sources: NASA Earth (Groundwater Loss in Arizona and the Colorado River Basin), Water Resources Research Center Arizona (Coconino County Water Fact Sheet, March 2024), Arizona State University Water Innovation Institute, NASA Applied Sciences Water Resources Program documentation, KNAU Arizona News & NPR reports on regional water infrastructure and planning initiatives, Arizona Department of Water Resources press releases (June 30 and July 18, 2025), 2023 Governor's Water Council Recommendations, Arizona Senate Bill 1611 and 1242, University of Texas Jackson School of Geosciences groundwater research, U.S. Department of Interior conservation agreements, Navajo Nation LeChee Water Improvements Project (May 2025).